Tigers Starting Rotation Success Ends With Scherzer, Bonderman, and Somebody else

At the fifty thousand feet view – baseball is a simple game.

You throw the ball, you catch the ball, and you hit the ball.

If you're Justin Verlander – he has already cemented his status as the Tigers ace and first spot in the rotation holder.

Or Rick Porcello – who sure smells like the next Verlander – as he seems to be the easy second spot holder and ready to assume the title of ace should Verlander … falter.

Same for Max Scherzer – the new acquirement from Arizona – who threw great yesterday.

But once you drop down a little lower in the stratosphere – the game gets a bit more complicated.

At least that's how it must seem to a large contingent of pitchers vying for the Tigers remaining three starting rotation spots.

It's damned complicated if you're Dontrelle Willis – who seems to battle himself harder than the guy at the plate.

It's damned frustrating if you're Jeremy Bonderman – the man who was heralded as the Tiger's ace before Justin Verlander broke out with a no-hitter in early 2007, then succumbed to injury and the recovery to former form since.

It's a distant memory if you're Nate Robertson – who just seemed to fall off the cliff of great pitching hopefuls to rise through the Tigers bullpen back to the starting rotation.

It's a goal just out of reach of Zack Minor – who has only proved to date to be a marginal fifth spotter in the rotation.

Armando Galarraga was such a bright spot in a dismal 2008. The rookie who became our rotation rock of Gibraltar – but stumbled back down to mediocrity last season.

And Jarrod Washburn – who since arriving with the Tigers in mid-season last year – did little so far to endear fans to him.

So far, there is some encouragement glimmering from Jeremy Bonderman. A good outing yesterday should the hard throwing righty to have some real nasty making his slider snap at the plate.

That would be so great to have the Bonderman of past days back in the Tigers rotation. A great thing in deed.

And Dontrelle Willis also had a really good outing yesterday – seemingly in spite of how he says he felt out there on the mound. Stating even though he didn't feel good, and he couldn't find his rhythm – he still got the job done very well.

But what does that really mean? It sounds good at first for Dontrelle – but his problem is really a lack of confidence – and that didn't sound very confident yesterday.

So to me, with three weeks left to go – so far the starting rotation to me looks likes like this:

1.Verlander
2. Porcello
3. Scherzer
4. Bonderman
5. Willis

Of course a lot can change over the next three weeks. And Willis is in there despite his own self.

So my list may very well change.

As for the bullpen, the old springtime distraction is back. Joel Zumaya is back and throwing nearly a hundred miles and hour again.

And this distraction is taking the spot light off of the other bullpen pitchers.

In my personal opinion, a Zumaya who is throwing fastballs a hundred miles an hour is a Joel Zumaya who isn't throwing anything else but fastballs. And if you're a hitter – a big league professional – and you know you're gonna get a hundred mile an hour fastball flying at you as the next pitch – I'll bet you're gonna hit that ball – and probably hit it hard.

So I don't want to waste a lot of time on Joel Zumaya this year – unless he is seriously looking to add some new dimensions to his pitching artillery.

The one pitcher I haven't had a chance to see yet that I am really anxious to see – is Jose Valverde – the closer we picked up this winter. He has pitched four innings – given up four hits four walks and four strike outs – and not yet given up a run.

So I think we have upgraded considerably our closing spot from Fernando Rodney to Jose Valverde.

Great pitching beats great hitting. It's a law of baseball physics that even the baseball gods can do little about.

And so far our starting rotation looks pretty darn good.

Especially if Bonderman comes back to his old form.

Watch out American League Central.

Could it be? The Detroit Tigers Are Six Games Up?

originally published on headstuffing on September 6, 2009

Could it be?

I seem to have to keep looking at my newspaper this morning.

The sports section. The Major League Baseball standings tucked in the top left corner of the second page of the sports section.

There, in black and white – with the authority of an official news organization behind – sits the standings of the American League Central.

My beloved Detroit Tigers are leading the American League Central division by six games.

Holy mackerel

I have watched every game on television or listened to every game on the radio. So I don't know why I am in such a state of disbelief. Joyous disbelief, but disbelief all the same.

Pat Caputo is on the radio again this morning urging people to finally believe in this team. With a team leading their division by six with twenty seven left to play. The magic number now set to twenty games – combinations of Tigers Wins – or losses of Minnesota and Chicago. Pat can't understand why Tiger fans have been hesitant to believe the Tigers will win the American League pennant and have a spot in the 2009 playoffs.

Well, to start with, the Tigers were supposed to be a poor team this year – chosen by the pundits of national sports to finish near the bottom of the division. But we Tiger fans knew the boys wearing the old English D were not as bad as they appeared to be last year – when they did finish in the basement after being picked by those same national media pundits to win the World Series.

We knew our starting pitching rotation would not stink this year like they did last year. We knew guys like Polanco, Inge, Guillen, and Thames would step up to fill the shoes of game-by-game heros when our superstars like Cabrera, Ordonez, Granderson, and Verlander faltered. And we knew that the Tigers farm system was deep enough to supply great temporary support by sending up newcomers like Raburn, Thomas, and Avila would step into roles and play significant parts – before we even knew their names.

But the problem was the Tigers couldn't win on the road.

Their road record was atrocious until the last two away game series. They hadn't won a road series since May, until taking the Angels in Anaheim last week and know their current series with the Tampa Bay Rays this weekend. The final game of that series about to start in a few minutes.

But while the Tigers played poorly on the road, the Minnesota Twins and Chicago White Sox played worse.

Nobody beats Tampa Bay at Tropicana field.

But the Tigers have. And came from behind to do so.

The bats that were quiet are now awake.

The players that were slumping in clutch situations are now getting key hits. The pitching – when failing – has received enough run support to surpass the opposition. The defense has been tighter – and the Tigers Catchers – Laird and Avila – have been surpising in their ability to handcuff base runners by throwing laser accurate ropes to second – to the perfect spots where the runners slide into waiting gloves of Polanco, Everette, and Santiago.

A new confidence has arisen from the Tigers when they sit in the visiting dugouts.

If they score first they taunt the opposition to catch them if they can. If they fall behind in the course of a game, they charge back with determination and conviction to take the lead in the eighth or ninth innings.

And Tigers closer Fernando Rodney gives you tingles of fear comparable to a bungee jump made at a county fair – walking men or giving up hits to allow the tying run coming to the plate – only to get the poor bastard to swing at strike three and get out of the self-imposed jam. Rodney has scared us to death with every save opportunity appearance – but the statics show that in thirty something such opportunities – he has only let one slip through his split fingers.

But I am superstitious when it comes to baseball. I believe in jinxes.

And so that is why I still hesitate to declare decisively as Pat Caputo insists – that the Tigers will win the AL Central division.

Six game leads seem like a lot. Especially in September.

But there is a very scary road trip coming up – to visit both Minnesota and Chicago – at fields they don't typically do well in … so I reserve my right to hedge my complete and utter faith in the Tigers winning the pennant. Six games can dwindle quickly – especially if Minnesota and Chicago get hot too.

So I am still nervous. That's what makes a true pennant race like this one so exciting. I am hopeful – and trying desperately to be faithful. But I don't yet know for sure where things will sit when the fat lady sings in the first week of October.

I do know this. I will be at that final regular season game in October – against the White Sox. And whether it is a game of formality to simply cheer the Tigers into the post season – or whether it comes down to that final game to win our way into the post season – I don't know.

But it will be a great day that day.

Perhaps I will venture up to the press box to track down Caputo – and shake his hand – and share with him how truly great this season has been – pretending to be a pizza delivery guy – or a writer for the Schwartzville Times – Gazette – and simply point a thumbs up at him as he keys in his thoughts on the season.

Who knows.

But it has been a terrific ride that I hope continues strong for another twenty seven game days.

And I can honestly state that I am now a true believer – with only the fear that I am jinxing my beloved Detroit Tigers.

Could it be?

Yes it could.

How Will The Detroit Tigers Do In the Second Half of 2009

originally published on headstuffing on July 13, 2009

It's the All Star break.

The halfway point. The 2009 Major League Baseball season is half over.

And this year – 2009 – just like 2006 and 2007 – my beloved Detroit Tigers are in first place. They a three and a half game lead over the Chicago White Sox, and a four game lead over the Minnesota Twins.

So for this brief break in the season play, it's nice to sit and cherish the moment – but not for too long, both Chicago and Minnesota could pass by the Tigers in a single week.

The Tigers have the schedule on their side for the second half of 2009, but unless the bullpen gets it done, and the bats wake up more often, it will be a very close race right up to the final game in October.

And baseball is a funny game. Any team can win on any given day.

The Tigers as a Team

Q: The Tigers are winning the American League Central, how good are they really doing?

It is true that the American League Central Division is the weakest division in baseball. The Tigers win / loss average right now is .552. If they were in the American League East, they would be in third place behind Boston Red Sox and the New York Yankees. In the American League West they would be behind the L.A. Angels (of Anaheim) and tied in second place with the Texas Rangers.

So in the American League, the Tigers are tied with Texas as the fourth best team. If they were in the National League, they would be the fourth best team in the National League.

In all of the Major Leagues, the Tigers would be tied for seventh place – again with the Texas Rangers.

The good news is that if they hold on and win the Central Division, they go to the playoffs – and anything can happen in the playoffs.

The bad news is that if they slip even to second place – surpassed by with Chicago or Minnesota – they will likely be out of play offs – because most likely the wild card team will be from the AL Easter division – and New York and Tampa Bay are fighting it out for that spot at the moment.

So – the Tigers are first in the AL Central – but tied for fourth in the American league, and tied for seventh overall in the Major Leagues.

Q: Is that good?

Considering four teams from the American League, and four teams from the National League – eight teams in total – go to the playoffs – so far the Tigers are making the cut. But they are on the outer edge.

Q: Well, are the Tigers any good?

One of the Tiger's most famous managers, Sparky Anderson, used to say he couldn't judge how good his ball team was until they had played forty games. Give a season consists of one hundred and sixty two games, that's nearly the whole first quarter of the season. But here we sit at the half way point. The Tigers of played eighty seven – six games past the halfway mark.

So the second half of the season is actually already under way, and the Tigers have won five of those six games. But those games were played against Kansas City and Cleveland, the two bottom feeders of the AL Central.

So at the halfway mark, I still cannot tell if my Detroit Tigers, leaders of the American League Central, are any good.

Q: How the Tigers stack up against their American League Rivals?

To me, the proof of how good the Tigers have been is how they have played against the four teams ahead of them in the American League. The Red Sox, Yankees, Angels, and the Rangers (whom they are tied with). How did the Tigers fare against these teams?

• The Tigers were swept by Boston Red Sox – losing all three games. So that's not good.
  
• The Tigers won one game and lost to to the Yankees – so that's not so good either.
  
• The Tigers won three against the Angels (of Anaheim) and lost three – so that's not good or bad.
  
• The Tigers have won all six games they played against the Rangers – two sweeps. So that is very good. I would say that even though their record shows them tied with the Rangers, the Tigers can beat them.
  

So it sounds like the Tigers are clearly the fourth best team in the American League.

But what about against those other teams in their Division? The Chicago White Sox and the Minnesota Twins? It's more important that they can beat those guys, right?

Well, kind of. Let's see.

Detroit has won four and lost two to the White Sox. And the Tigers have won two and lost four to the Twins. Yet the White Sox are in second place and the Twins are in third place.

The only conclusion I can make from these team win loss records is that it is more important how the schedule falls. Who you play more often and when?

Any team can beat any other team on any given night.

That's baseball.

So how do the Tigers schedule look for the next half of the season?

• The Tigers play better at home – at Comerica Park. Their winning percentage at home is quite high.
  
• They play six games against the White Sox at home, and only three in Chicago.
  
• They play seven games at home against the Twins, and only three games in Minnesota.
  
• The last seven games of the Tigers schedule are against Minnesota and Chicago in Detroit at Comerica Park.
  

So that sounds very promising.

The Tigers Roster

Q: Let's talk about the Tigers players

Things can change very quickly. This is simply assuming the current trends will hold, and they likely will change a bit. Trades will be made in the next several weeks. Contending teams will try to bolters their rosters with pieces they are missing – trading with teams likely out of contention and that need to change direction or ease their payolls.

The Tigers need to make a couple of trades. Who knows if anything will be available though.

Maglio Ordonez

Tigers superstar Maglio Ordenez isnot play very well at all. Mags has a career average of .310. He is hitting .260 this year. He has ever been an outstanding right fielder. He has a strange contract that states if he reaches a certain amount of games played for the Tigers this year, he earns an automatic extension and another 33 million dollars.

The expectation is that Mags has to go. I'm sorry to say that. His quality is still in the upper echelon of baseball, but that damned contract paints the Tigers into a corner that they must … well .. get out of.

My own feeling about Maglio – for what little it's worth - is that a controversy he was caught in the middle of – where he publically supported an unpopular Venezuelan president caused his fellow Venezuelan fans to boo him harshly through this springs World Baseball Classic appearances. Mags batted around .220 in those exhibitions, and that slump carried well into this season. I think that hurt Maglio emotionally, and is a big part of the reason for his slump.

I would hate to see Mags traded to a team and have him come back to beat us, But I also appreciate the fact that his numbers this season do not warrant a 30 million dollar contract extension.

Tigers Pitching

Q: The Tigers have one of the best starting rotations in baseball?

As well, the Tigers pitching has been their strongest weapon. Justin Verlander and Edwin Jackson have been spectacular so far. So has rookie phenom Rick Porcello. The fourth starter Armondo Gallarraga has had a bumpier start than his break out rookie season last year, but he could step it up in the second half.

The fifth starter, Dontrelle Willis has been a dud since joining the Tigers in 2008. His ERA is 7.49. And so the Tigers basically are stuck with a four man rotation. But now with the rising of Lucas French up from the minor league system – a no decision in his first start – a sixteen inning marathon in Minnesota loss, and a brilliant start in Kansas City that made people take notice - the Tigers might think they now have a five man rotation again.

Time will tell. But unlikely any trades will occur. Perhaps the dismissal of Dontrelle Willis.

Q: Fernando Rodney has never blown a save this year.

The Tigers bullpen has been as much to blame for Tiger losses as the often quiet bats of an explosive Tigers Offense. Fernando Rodney has stepped in to assume the role of closer – and has a perfect save record of 19 – 0, with an ERA of 3.92. That ERA is a bit high for a perfect save record. The news is that in Save situations – Rodney has given up less runs than the Tigers explosive runs have provided as a lead. Every outing is a roller coaster ride, and his record in non-save starts is rather abysmal.

In short, Rodney can get the job done to close a game out when the Tigers are leading into the ninth inning, but he is unlikely to hold the opposition off from scoring to give the Tigers a chance to catch up.

Solution? Only use Rodney in true save situations.

Q: How bad is the Tigers bullpen? That's what everyone nationally wants to know.

Our bullpen needs help.

The only problem is that every team hordes their quality bullpen staff. To acquire from another team means paying costly with talent you already have. The hope is that Joel Zumaya, Ryan Perry, and Fu – Te Ni can raise to the quality Tigers management expect of them.

Bobby Seay, Freddy Dolsi, and Brandon Lyon – on the other hand – have done well to hold up their end of the bullpen, and it is critical they maintain those levels.

So I do not expect to see any big trades for pitching coming, just some shuffling and perhaps a release or minor league repositioning or two.

Conclusion

Q: So Fred, sum this all up – what is your conclusion?

Well, if our quality starters – Cabrera, Laird and Inge can maintain their above normal paces this year, and Granderson, Anderson, Polanco, and Ordonez can raise their games to where they should be – the Tigers regular players will be competitive with any team in the Majors.

As well, if the players trying to stay in the majors from the minor leagues – Raburn, Thomas, Kelly (who might pop back up from Toledo) – can continue to contribute the way they have in the first half of the season, the Tigers chances grow even higher. These guys have played extremely well for the Tigers while regarded as 4A (AAAA) players – too god for the minor leagues but not quite major league material. And this has been a big reason (in my opinion) for the Tigers first half success.

As well, if Verlander and Jackson stay hot and healthy, and Luke French does not get found out, our starting rotation will be among baseballs very best.

But the starters can only be expected to get you six or seven innings in a game. The Tigers bullpen is the key to the second half. If Rodney continues getting saves – in his own roller coaster fashion that would make Todd Jones look dependable – then the Tigers can continue to win games with a lead into the ninth.

But if Joel Zumaya, Zach Minor, and Ryan Perry don't step upon the middle relief roles – the Tigers explosive bats get cancelled very quickly.

I think the key to the second half of the Detroit Tigers second half of the 2009 season is the bullpen, and the often quiet bats of the offense to wake up a bit. There will be something done with Maglio Ordonez, Dontrelle Willis, and most likely a couple of our super 4A contributors – but who and what that will bring to the Tigers is a crap shoot.

Who knows.

The Tigers have the schedule on their side for the second half of 2009, but unless the bullpen gets it done, and the bats wake up more often, it will be a very very close race right up to the final game in October.

And baseball is a funny game. Any team can win on any given day.