2010 Prediction – Tigers Win American League Central – Seriously

The Tigers Opening Day is upon us. Although the season officially kicked off last night with a great dual between the Yankees and the Red Sox.

Today the Tiger's open against Kansas City – in Kansas City.

I think anyone tossing out predictions of the outcome of 162 games played is tossing a dart at a distant board on a windy day. But for all those darts tossed so far, the Tigers have been picked to come in second or third.

But here is where I think our Tigers will come out in the end:

1. Detroit Tigers
2. Minnesota Twins
3. Chicago White Sox
4. Kansas City Royals
5. Cleveland Indians

The Tigers? In first? What are you … some hometown homer slappy? Looking through rose colored glasses? Haven't you taken anything that has transpired over the off season, or the end of 2009 seriously? What are you thinking?

I know what it sounds like, But there is some rationale behind my seemingly over-optimistic prediction.

The Tigers are still a contending team in baseball. While both Minnesota and Chicago have upgraded in the offseason, the White Sox are still a bunch of players on a roster – not a team – the only outcome possible when managed by Ozzie Guillen.

And Minnesota upgraded by adding Thome to the power duo of Mauer and Morneau, and playing under Ron Gardenhire. But they can no longer hide under their "dome from hell" home field advantage.

I hated that dome.

And they have lost Nathan as their closer. But the importance may be overstated by some.

Believe it or not, the Tigers are deeper than both the Twins and the White Sox. The problem is that we are so familiar with most of this team – we under estimate them – and we under value them.

So that re-levels the field to me.

Therefore – here are my three main reasons why the Tigers will win the ALCS in 2010:

Reason 3 – Defense and New Acquisitions 

The Tigers no longer have Granderson and Polanco – now it's Austin Jackson in center field and Scott Sizemore at second. Johnny Damon will take over left – leaving Carlos Guillen in a spot he will not be happy with. See some platooning in left between Damon and Guillen with Damon winning the position before the forty game mark elapses.

We may see Carlos leave the Tigers in midseason and money spent on a designated hitter.

Austin Jackson has been the talk of the grapefruit league. Deservedly so showing both power and placement hitting skills and a good defensive ability in center. Look for numbers for Jackson at the .280 mark – a great start from a rookie. There are some picking Jackson to be the rookie of the year – but let's not go saying things like that just yet.

As Sizemore's ankle continues to get stronger – look for his range to increase at second. As well, look for his bat to level off at the .260 mark. A reasonable expectation I think.

Defensively the Tigers will surprise everyone to not be markedly weaker up the middle. Look for Adam Everett to get more comfortable at short to make up for his failings at the plate. I have a hunch that the Everett – Sizemore combo will be better than expected as the two grow together.

With Inge at third and Cabera at first – both battling challenges of different natures from the past seasons – look for strength at both corners. But don't expect Inge to finish better than .240 at the plate. He has shown us fool's gold in his hitting in the past – just hope he remains able to play with those knees and can get a bat on the ball in RISP situations. If he learns not to think long-ball, Brandon will have a good year.

Cabrera will have an amazing year this year. He is humbled by the outcome of last season – and the Tiger Woods like embarrassment it entailed – albeit his challenge is of a different nature. Cabrera will have a strong shot at the AL MVP and hit .335 for the season.

Also look for Maglio Ordonez to hit around .310 this year – with power and with placement. Mags will step it up this year at the plate. But he will not surprise anyone with his defensive play in right.

Gerald Laird is a very good defensive catcher – but look for Laird to be replaced by Avila in the mid season as his trade value forces the Tigers hand to make a move for either a starting pitcher or a designated hitter during he all star break or shortly after. This will force Avila's hand to change the way he receives pitches – he must present a better target for his pitchers and frame the results better for catchers – or he will never become a quality catcher in the Major Leagues.

The top half of the Tigers lineup is chalk full of hitting potential – Jackson, Damon, Ordonez, Cabrera, and Guillen. But the second half is weaker with Inge, Sizemore, Laird, and Everett. For this reason alone – see this team play a lot more small ball strategy with that bottom half of the order – creating means by which they can get men on. If the second half of the order can hold on in an inning to get back to the top of the order and into the meat – this team will score runs. But that is a big if.

Luckily – great pitching beats great hitting …

Reason 2 – Pitching

The Tigers main advantage over the rest of the ALC is their pitching. Lets take a look and see what we really have here.

Justin Verlander has established himself as an elite American League pitcher. He enters ballgames now – well entrenched in the heads of opposing batters. This is Verlander's year to break the twenty wins mark. As well, his ability and desire to go deep into a game only makes him better – and gives our bullpen a chance to rest – allowing Leyland more options for the next game.

Rick Porcello has established himself in his rookie season as a new Verlander. Perhaps not how Rick want's to be perceived. But the young man's control, poise and toolset of pitches appear to be those attributes of a seasoned veteran. Many expect Porcello to suffer from the dreaded sophomore slump – but I have a feeling he is too strong willed for that to happen. Look at Porcello to win 17 games this year.

Max Scherzer comes to Detroit from Arizona this year after finishing last year with a 9 wins 11 losses record – a .412 ERA, and a 1.32 WHIP. These are not inspiring numbers. And this will be his first year in the American League. To me, Matt Scherzer is an unknown still. But this will be his third year in the bigs – and we may see those numbers improve. Look for a 10 wins season from Scherzer. Anything better would be outstanding.

Jeremy Bonderman is back this year – after prolonged injuries have prevented him from truly pitching the way we all know he is capable of. The former Ace of the Tigers is anxious to show he still is a pitcher to deal with, and wants to reassert himself as a dominant force in the American League. The question is "can he stay healthy?" No past numbers from previous years have any bearing on predicting the 2010 season for Jeremy. But I am predicting a comeback year for the bulldog. Look for 14 wins for Jeremy this year.

Dontrelle Willis is the second biggest question mark in my mind after Max Scherzer. Nobody that I know of has ever recovered from the mental aspects of loss of confidence in themselves as what Dontrelle has battled these last two seasons. The outlook is not good that he will be the first. But if he should, then I would give Dontrelle 9 wins this year. But honestly, I don't see Dontrelle on this roster by Memorial Day weekend. But I wish him all the good fortune in the world.

The Bullpan – expect Phil Coke to move into the starting rotation shortly in the start of this year to replace the struggling Dontrelle Willis. That being said - Eddie Bonine, Ryan Perry, and Fu-Te Nu are quality middle relievers. Bobby Seay will hopefully recover from a torn rotator cup to help in this support role – but look for Seay to be less effective – if he should be able to recover.

Look for Joel Zumaya to finally grow up this year as well, extending his pitches to include a slider and changeup. If he can keep his mind off the speed gun – and throw pitches instead of heat – Zoom-by-ya holds a good shot at helping the Tigers get through the last two or three innings.

Closer Jose Valverde is an exciting addition to this roster – and to this date I think an underestimated reason I expect success from the Tigers in 2010. With a lead in the ninth, expect Valverde to get the job done convincingly. If not, then expect a battle between Valverde and Zumaya for that closing spot. It's hard to believe that Fernando Rodney blew only one save opportunity for the Tigers in 2009 – and I think that was a key reason for their success up until the end. Look at Valverde to continue that closing successs – but without the thrills we are used to from Rodney and Jones of days gone by.

Stong successes by Verlander and Porcello, along with a comeback year by Bonderman and a convincing closer in Valverde will make this the pitching staff to beat and keep the Tigers strongly in contention in the American League Central. Good pitching beats good hitting damned near every time. But the key is how the Tigers hit to support the good pitching.

Reason 1 – The end of the 2009 season.

Since 2006 – the Tigers have ended the season poorly. Droughts and doldrums coming since the first weeks of August, and lasting through the end of September.

In 2006, they let a ten game lead slip away in the final games by losing three in a row to basement dwelling Kansas City. The Twins snuck in as ALC division champs. But the ALC had the wildcard spot – as it was the strongest division in the American League. Of course the Tigers made it that year to the World Series after defeating the Yankees and Oakland A's in the playoffs – only to return to their slump during the World Series against St. Louis.

The slump repeated itself in 2007 – the Tigers this time some four games back behind the White Sox and Twins.

In 2008 – the boys slumped right out of the gate – losing their first seven games in a row – and they never recovered.

In 2009 – one of the hardest seasons to watch – a repeat of the 2006 slump verbatim – with no wild card spot safety net to catch them - the second half slump allowed the Tigers to be overtaken by the Twins after losing three of their last four games to the Twins and White Sox – only to lose in a one game playoff against the Twins in Minnesota's dome from hell.

Last year hurt more than 2006. More than 2007, Even more than finishing in the basement in 2008 after being picked by many to win the World Series that year.

2010 will be different. That memory of last year is fresh in these guys minds. Fresh in Manager Jim Leyland's mind – and a deep scar in Dave Dombrowski and Mike Ilitch's heart.

That's why this offseason saw star players Granderson and Polanco leave to the Yankees and Phillies.

Change was needed. And a message was sent to this squad that no one is safe.

Especially Willis, Guillen and Laird.

This year, I expect there to be no second-half-slump. Should one arise, I think we will all be saying goodbye to our beloved skip Leyland this August.

It just won't be tolerated.

The Starting Lineup To Start 2010

It looks like Jim Leyland has pretty much solidified his starting lineup to open the 2010 season:

1. Austin Jackson, CF
2. Johnny Damon, LF
3. Magglio Ordonez, RF
4. Miguel Cabrera, 1B
5. Carlos Guillen, DH
6. Brandon Inge, 3B
7. Gerald Laird, C
8. Scott Sizemore, 2B
9. Adam Everett, SS

 In my opinion, there are no real surprises here.

Just sighs of relief.

Relieved that Austin Jackson appears poised to pan out as a solid center fielder with the potential to get on base more often than Curtis Granderson did. I'm already warming up to the nickname "A-Jax". That's a keeper.

This means more ducks on the pond for Damon, Ordonez, and Cabrera.

And if Damon does happen to be hampered by the larger outfield at Comerica – he has just as good a shot at his hits dropping in and being on base right after Jackson.

And if Maglio continues where he left off in the latter days of 2009, and Cabrera steps up his clutch hitting with runners in scoring position – we have a strong front loaded offense.

Toss in Carlos Guillen for good measure.

But that line up once we get past Guillen and down to Inge, well, it goes pretty limp.

Don't get me wrong. Inge has been known to step it up a notch in clutch situations. But a career .240 average always finds it's level.

The one potentially bright spot could be Sizemore. After all, he is still an unknown. A rookie. And who knows. We may look back one day to this line up and remark "Can you believe Sizmore started the season hitting eighth?".

Or not. Time and Scott Sizemore will have to play this one out.

Defensively I think we are not as weak up the middle as we thought we thought earlier that we would be.

Laird is an excellent catcher. Hate his bat all you want, but this guy is good at the plate, a very good receiver who can holds runners, and getting them when they go.

Everett at shortstop is not a weakness defensively. And again we have to wait and see how Sizemore matures in the two bag spot.

But Austin Jackson has impressed defensively in Lakeland. Perhaps not a Granderson … yet. But who's to say he won't be someday ... now that we have seen him.

Again time will tell.

Piching - it looks like the rotation is pretty much set too – except for that fifth spot.

1. Verlander
2. Porcello
3. Scherzer
4. Bonderman
5. Willis or Robertson

I caught a little heat from people last week about my putting Willis in the fifth spot of that rotation. Justifiably so. Both Willis and Robertson had good springs - but Robertson defintely has the edge when it comes to holding it together when the pitches count for something.



The wise old  manager sage in Jim Leyland seems to know how to milk a bull pen for all it's worth.

But what is that bullpen worth now?

Seay is out with a torn Rotator Cup. Miner also starts the season on the DL.

Zumaya can give you an inning, maybe two?  Fu Te Ne is pretty reliable. And the loser of the Willis / Robertson battle.

The Skip might need to keep his stool and bucket set up to massage the utters of this bullpen.

And now we have Valverde to close. This year our closer should be a welcome treat. Hopefully the ninth innings with a lead will not be the rollercoaster thrill ride of recent years under Jones and Rodney.

So as the boys of the old English D arrive back up North to open (Kansas City is still north of Lakeland) to open the 2010 campaign for the AL Central division – once again I feel comfortable with our offense, our defense and our starting pitching.

But the bottom of our order is weaker, and our bullpen is again in question.

There is a good side to this. We open against the Royals. And then we open at home against the Indians.

So we have a pretty good shot at starting the season on a winning roll.

But I don't want to invoke the hex of the 2008 seven game losing streak to open the year.

So lets just say it looks pretty good ... for now. Maybe a little weaker – but maybe not.

It's up to the Rookies Jackson and Sizemore and the bullpen.

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Tigers Starting Rotation Success Ends With Scherzer, Bonderman, and Somebody else

At the fifty thousand feet view – baseball is a simple game.

You throw the ball, you catch the ball, and you hit the ball.

If you're Justin Verlander – he has already cemented his status as the Tigers ace and first spot in the rotation holder.

Or Rick Porcello – who sure smells like the next Verlander – as he seems to be the easy second spot holder and ready to assume the title of ace should Verlander … falter.

Same for Max Scherzer – the new acquirement from Arizona – who threw great yesterday.

But once you drop down a little lower in the stratosphere – the game gets a bit more complicated.

At least that's how it must seem to a large contingent of pitchers vying for the Tigers remaining three starting rotation spots.

It's damned complicated if you're Dontrelle Willis – who seems to battle himself harder than the guy at the plate.

It's damned frustrating if you're Jeremy Bonderman – the man who was heralded as the Tiger's ace before Justin Verlander broke out with a no-hitter in early 2007, then succumbed to injury and the recovery to former form since.

It's a distant memory if you're Nate Robertson – who just seemed to fall off the cliff of great pitching hopefuls to rise through the Tigers bullpen back to the starting rotation.

It's a goal just out of reach of Zack Minor – who has only proved to date to be a marginal fifth spotter in the rotation.

Armando Galarraga was such a bright spot in a dismal 2008. The rookie who became our rotation rock of Gibraltar – but stumbled back down to mediocrity last season.

And Jarrod Washburn – who since arriving with the Tigers in mid-season last year – did little so far to endear fans to him.

So far, there is some encouragement glimmering from Jeremy Bonderman. A good outing yesterday should the hard throwing righty to have some real nasty making his slider snap at the plate.

That would be so great to have the Bonderman of past days back in the Tigers rotation. A great thing in deed.

And Dontrelle Willis also had a really good outing yesterday – seemingly in spite of how he says he felt out there on the mound. Stating even though he didn't feel good, and he couldn't find his rhythm – he still got the job done very well.

But what does that really mean? It sounds good at first for Dontrelle – but his problem is really a lack of confidence – and that didn't sound very confident yesterday.

So to me, with three weeks left to go – so far the starting rotation to me looks likes like this:

1.Verlander
2. Porcello
3. Scherzer
4. Bonderman
5. Willis

Of course a lot can change over the next three weeks. And Willis is in there despite his own self.

So my list may very well change.

As for the bullpen, the old springtime distraction is back. Joel Zumaya is back and throwing nearly a hundred miles and hour again.

And this distraction is taking the spot light off of the other bullpen pitchers.

In my personal opinion, a Zumaya who is throwing fastballs a hundred miles an hour is a Joel Zumaya who isn't throwing anything else but fastballs. And if you're a hitter – a big league professional – and you know you're gonna get a hundred mile an hour fastball flying at you as the next pitch – I'll bet you're gonna hit that ball – and probably hit it hard.

So I don't want to waste a lot of time on Joel Zumaya this year – unless he is seriously looking to add some new dimensions to his pitching artillery.

The one pitcher I haven't had a chance to see yet that I am really anxious to see – is Jose Valverde – the closer we picked up this winter. He has pitched four innings – given up four hits four walks and four strike outs – and not yet given up a run.

So I think we have upgraded considerably our closing spot from Fernando Rodney to Jose Valverde.

Great pitching beats great hitting. It's a law of baseball physics that even the baseball gods can do little about.

And so far our starting rotation looks pretty darn good.

Especially if Bonderman comes back to his old form.

Watch out American League Central.